Research: Erg Scores Correlate to Rowing Performance

Here is a research result which may or may not be earth-shattering news to you:
2000m erg scores correlate with 2000m racing results, particularly with rowers competing in the World Championships in small boats (1x and 2x).

Researchers questioned 638 rowers at the elite World Championships about their 2000m ergometer times. Both sexes and lightweight and heavyweight rowers were included. They found that "in 17 of 23 events they [ergometer times] were positively correlated (P < or = 0.049) with the final rankings at the Championships." Lightweight men's singles had the strongest correlation (.78), followed by women's singles (.75), men's singles (.72) and lightweight men's doubles (.72). A correlation of .8 is generally considered strong, while a correlation less than .5 is considered weak.

These researchers conducted a similar survey of 398 junior rowers and found an even stronger correlation among "junior women's single sculls (r = 0.92; P < 0.001), followed by junior men's single sculls (r = 0.80; P < 0.001) and junior women's double sculls (r = 0.79; P < 0.001)." Larger boats - quads, fours, and eights managed only r = 0.31-0.70. For this study of the junior rowers, the researchers issued a caveat: "Although correlations in 10 of the 13 events were above r = 0.5, the large standard errors of the estimate impaired the prediction of rankings in all of the studied events."

I know many people who would like ergometer prowess to manifest in their rowing performance (or lack thereof). They can pound out amazing splits on the erg, but just flounder in the water. Many folks say "ergs don't float" meaning your ergometer performance has no bearing on how well you perform in a boat; however, this piece of research suggests otherwise (at least for high caliber rowers, which I suppose is a significant caveat).